Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #577 of 1,000

P0835

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 66,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 440

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 560

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 599Deviation -R 1 961

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 560. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 779

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 154 to R 14 815
Finished ahead: 187 / 1,000 (18,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #690 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,17% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.363
Mean bets / session: 3.475
Loss multiplier: 1.1141×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 36,7% / 83,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 36620 wagers · RTP 36,14%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 21520 wagers · RTP 110,33%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 84218 wagers · RTP 133,55%

European RouletteR 1 27312 wagers · RTP 40,53%

BaccaratR 7717 wagers · RTP 153,57%

BlackjackR 7467 wagers · RTP 70,78%

American RouletteR 6846 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6719 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 6505 wagers · RTP 125,23%

CrashR 4263 wagers · RTP 66,61%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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