Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #761 of 1,000

P0836

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 68,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 477

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 523

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 608Deviation -R 3 915

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 523. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 787

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 901 to R 30 572
Finished ahead: 233 / 1,000 (23,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #889 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 6,06% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.342
Mean bets / session: 4.191
Loss multiplier: 0.9778×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 72,7% / 70,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 11 34834 wagers · RTP 116,49%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 10 96246 wagers · RTP 26,81%

BaccaratR 3 3228 wagers · RTP 55,55%

CrashR 2 9669 wagers · RTP 222,89%

American RouletteR 2 3356 wagers · RTP 59,49%

Craps / DiceR 2 0376 wagers · RTP 153,26%

BlackjackR 1 6854 wagers · RTP 19,35%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 5007 wagers · RTP 39,07%

European RouletteR 1 1543 wagers · RTP 186,14%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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