Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #917 of 1,000

P0837

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 19,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 714

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 286

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 937Deviation -R 8 349

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 286. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 901

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 814 to R 25 625
Finished ahead: 266 / 1,000 (26,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #788 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,12% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.312
Mean bets / session: 2.396
Loss multiplier: 1.2159×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 61,9% / 53,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 5 71617 wagers · RTP 89,15%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 26014 wagers · RTP 3,81%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 85718 wagers · RTP 18,45%

CrashR 2 51311 wagers · RTP 62,75%

European RouletteR 1 3555 wagers · RTP 80,59%

BlackjackR 1 3154 wagers · RTP 103,80%

BaccaratR 9025 wagers · RTP 20,40%

American RouletteR 5461 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 4293 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3985 wagers · RTP 10,05%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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