Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #817 of 1,000

P0838

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 32,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 279

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 721

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 300Deviation -R 5 420

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 721. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 826

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 735 to R 27 074
Finished ahead: 232 / 1,000 (23,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #747 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,13% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.702
Mean bets / session: 4.378
Loss multiplier: 0.9144×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 75,0% / 96,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 10 83238 wagers · RTP 99,01%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 25624 wagers · RTP 4,76%

American RouletteR 2 0268 wagers · RTP 79,32%

Craps / DiceR 1 7626 wagers · RTP 169,07%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 6437 wagers · RTP 45,59%

European RouletteR 1 5786 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 7104 wagers · RTP 80,56%

CrashR 7073 wagers · RTP 132,96%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 3711 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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