Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #749 of 1,000

P0840

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 7,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 742

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 258

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 664Deviation -R 4 594

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 258. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 505

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 443 to R 9 473
Finished ahead: 199 / 1,000 (19,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #672 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,82% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.312
Mean bets / session: 4.744
Loss multiplier: 0.9736×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 74,5% / 86,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 90444 wagers · RTP 33,20%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 92232 wagers · RTP 24,90%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 49327 wagers · RTP 52,78%

European RouletteR 1 13413 wagers · RTP 31,75%

BaccaratR 1 07220 wagers · RTP 131,34%

Three-Reel SlotR 66410 wagers · RTP 36,97%

American RouletteR 66110 wagers · RTP 46,90%

Craps / DiceR 2816 wagers · RTP 155,87%

CrashR 2173 wagers · RTP 85,71%

BlackjackR 1492 wagers · RTP 40,94%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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