Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #824 of 1,000

P0841

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 42,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 168

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 832

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 480Deviation -R 5 353

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 832. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 737

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 714 to R 25 026
Finished ahead: 264 / 1,000 (26,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #781 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,05% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.614
Mean bets / session: 3.821
Loss multiplier: 1.2326×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 63,8% / 42,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 12 66619 wagers · RTP 46,49%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 81515 wagers · RTP 76,24%

American RouletteR 5 0467 wagers · RTP 43,76%

BlackjackR 4 1988 wagers · RTP 111,47%

BaccaratR 2 9444 wagers · RTP 125,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 25,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 1142 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 200,00%

CrashR 3081 wagers · RTP 1 000,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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