Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #772 of 1,000

P0842

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 37,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 288

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 712

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 854Deviation -R 4 858

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 712. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 582

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 074 to R 20 486
Finished ahead: 215 / 1,000 (21,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #731 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,44% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.093
Mean bets / session: 2.319
Loss multiplier: 1.2121×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 74,9% / 54,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 5 06314 wagers · RTP 146,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 43814 wagers · RTP 95,15%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 66912 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 2 4326 wagers · RTP 13,62%

European RouletteR 2 1007 wagers · RTP 25,14%

BlackjackR 1 7494 wagers · RTP 85,48%

Craps / DiceR 1 1783 wagers · RTP 25,13%

BaccaratR 1 0083 wagers · RTP 92,86%

Three-Reel SlotR 3652 wagers · RTP 24,52%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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