Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #34 of 1,000

P0843

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 91,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 26 069

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 16 069

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 278Deviation R 17 346

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 16 069. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 203

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 777 to R 26 666
Finished ahead: 254 / 1,000 (25,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #770 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,32% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.921
Mean bets / session: 3.493
Loss multiplier: 1.2003×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 68,9% / 98,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 8 79616 wagers · RTP 106,11%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7 27215 wagers · RTP 69,75%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6 42826 wagers · RTP 453,11%

CrashR 3 5007 wagers · RTP 46,43%

Craps / DiceR 3 3876 wagers · RTP 33,66%

BaccaratR 2 2804 wagers · RTP 146,25%

European RouletteR 1 5443 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 1 1402 wagers · RTP 150,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 16,67%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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