Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #876 of 1,000

P0844

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 23,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 690

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 310

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 225Deviation -R 7 085

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 310. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 040

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 358 to R 25 959
Finished ahead: 238 / 1,000 (23,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #795 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,70% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.933
Mean bets / session: 3.793
Loss multiplier: 1.1966×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 40,6% / 46,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 63320 wagers · RTP 104,97%

BaccaratR 5 50715 wagers · RTP 64,35%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 55519 wagers · RTP 22,50%

Craps / DiceR 3 4739 wagers · RTP 76,01%

BlackjackR 1 8415 wagers · RTP 141,99%

European RouletteR 1 6983 wagers · RTP 56,30%

American RouletteR 1 2135 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 9194 wagers · RTP 9,19%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 3802 wagers · RTP 54,74%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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