Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #769 of 1,000

P0845

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 44,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 330

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 670

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 105Deviation -R 4 565

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 670. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 912

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 214 to R 26 213
Finished ahead: 257 / 1,000 (25,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #749 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,85% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.73
Mean bets / session: 4.259
Loss multiplier: 1.2414×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 70,4% / 93,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 39719 wagers · RTP 58,96%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 07918 wagers · RTP 73,55%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 70816 wagers · RTP 71,01%

CrashR 3 0097 wagers · RTP 221,34%

Craps / DiceR 2 4368 wagers · RTP 9,36%

American RouletteR 1 7975 wagers · RTP 33,72%

BaccaratR 1 7653 wagers · RTP 57,45%

European RouletteR 1 5745 wagers · RTP 102,73%

BlackjackR 1 0693 wagers · RTP 106,08%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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