Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #790 of 1,000

P0846

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 54,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 898

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 102

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 131Deviation -R 4 971

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 102. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 420

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 499 to R 26 233
Finished ahead: 230 / 1,000 (23,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #810 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,20% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.282
Mean bets / session: 4.453
Loss multiplier: 1.0484×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 55,7% / 45,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9 91557 wagers · RTP 10,80%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 92933 wagers · RTP 90,17%

American RouletteR 2 00711 wagers · RTP 139,51%

Craps / DiceR 1 4239 wagers · RTP 95,01%

BaccaratR 1 1726 wagers · RTP 39,60%

European RouletteR 9777 wagers · RTP 514,33%

CrashR 8875 wagers · RTP 167,90%

BlackjackR 8648 wagers · RTP 39,12%

Three-Reel SlotR 8365 wagers · RTP 34,21%

Lottery / JackpotR 6647 wagers · RTP 60,24%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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