Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #795 of 1,000

P0847

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 55,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 756

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 244

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 155Deviation -R 4 088

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 244. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 827

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 513 to R 24 446
Finished ahead: 207 / 1,000 (20,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #828 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,97% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.628
Mean bets / session: 4.806
Loss multiplier: 0.9065×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 42,3% / 80,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 5 86114 wagers · RTP 80,87%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 57513 wagers · RTP 102,34%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 78118 wagers · RTP 13,22%

American RouletteR 3 7777 wagers · RTP 52,42%

CrashR 2 3236 wagers · RTP 107,03%

BaccaratR 1 8716 wagers · RTP 78,41%

BlackjackR 1 3363 wagers · RTP 80,24%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 250,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 50,00%

European RouletteR 1971 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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