Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #891 of 1,000

P0848

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 8,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 370

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 630

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 253Deviation -R 7 377

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 630. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 208

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 887 to R 22 034
Finished ahead: 208 / 1,000 (20,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #800 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,86% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.288
Mean bets / session: 3.725
Loss multiplier: 0.9192×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 72,4% / 79,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 9 09140 wagers · RTP 84,49%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 79627 wagers · RTP 21,92%

CrashR 2 88813 wagers · RTP 22,40%

American RouletteR 2 2559 wagers · RTP 27,01%

BlackjackR 1 87111 wagers · RTP 58,31%

European RouletteR 1 7026 wagers · RTP 187,78%

BaccaratR 1 0849 wagers · RTP 107,01%

Three-Reel SlotR 7666 wagers · RTP 69,58%

Lottery / JackpotR 7139 wagers · RTP 13,74%

Craps / DiceR 5595 wagers · RTP 44,36%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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