Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #820 of 1,000

P0849

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 27,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 211

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 789

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 904Deviation -R 5 885

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 789. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 236

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 162 to R 24 098
Finished ahead: 283 / 1,000 (28,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #715 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 6,45% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.009
Mean bets / session: 2.435
Loss multiplier: 1.19×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 45,3% / 45,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 55816 wagers · RTP 62,97%

BlackjackR 2 9329 wagers · RTP 58,05%

CrashR 2 8348 wagers · RTP 98,45%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 37011 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1 5864 wagers · RTP 119,48%

American RouletteR 1 4584 wagers · RTP 56,10%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 37,50%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 2691 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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