Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #789 of 1,000

P0850

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 34,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 926

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 074

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 816Deviation -R 5 258

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 074. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 410

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 804 to R 28 900
Finished ahead: 223 / 1,000 (22,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #725 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,72% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.658
Mean bets / session: 4.986
Loss multiplier: 1.1491×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 53,7% / 53,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 24012 wagers · RTP 83,84%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 18514 wagers · RTP 3,64%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 50015 wagers · RTP 26,67%

CrashR 1 4967 wagers · RTP 79,51%

European RouletteR 1 4336 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 0495 wagers · RTP 100,38%

BlackjackR 9934 wagers · RTP 145,62%

Craps / DiceR 9164 wagers · RTP 82,10%

American RouletteR 8103 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 275,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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