Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #652 of 1,000

P0851

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 42,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 272

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 728

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 482Deviation -R 3 246

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 728. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 263

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 856 to R 14 636
Finished ahead: 217 / 1,000 (21,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #656 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,54% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.22
Mean bets / session: 2.625
Loss multiplier: 1.2065×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 36,5% / 60,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 80214 wagers · RTP 11,78%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 19913 wagers · RTP 67,01%

European RouletteR 2 00913 wagers · RTP 77,65%

Craps / DiceR 1 0716 wagers · RTP 129,79%

CrashR 8606 wagers · RTP 38,52%

BlackjackR 6023 wagers · RTP 214,78%

American RouletteR 5044 wagers · RTP 91,67%

Lottery / JackpotR 4485 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 3373 wagers · RTP 109,94%

Three-Reel SlotR 2022 wagers · RTP 47,52%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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