Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #15 of 1,000

P0852

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 95,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 38 375

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 28 375

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 362Deviation R 29 737

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 28 375. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 045

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 568 to R 27 013
Finished ahead: 252 / 1,000 (25,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #753 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,71% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.955
Mean bets / session: 3.631
Loss multiplier: 1.0718×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 45,6% / 90,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 65120 wagers · RTP 99,08%

American RouletteR 5 59717 wagers · RTP 53,87%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 25017 wagers · RTP 817,65%

CrashR 4 02012 wagers · RTP 120,83%

BlackjackR 2 3457 wagers · RTP 135,71%

BaccaratR 2 2967 wagers · RTP 143,55%

Craps / DiceR 2 0106 wagers · RTP 133,33%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7387 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1 2634 wagers · RTP 61,28%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 25,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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