Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #651 of 1,000

P0853

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 26,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 317

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 683

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 525Deviation -R 3 158

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 683. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 594

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 923 to R 12 278
Finished ahead: 194 / 1,000 (19,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #607 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,04% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.282
Mean bets / session: 3.11
Loss multiplier: 1.095×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 41,0% / 74,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 30623 wagers · RTP 109,86%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 30212 wagers · RTP 8,14%

European RouletteR 1 20212 wagers · RTP 37,94%

BlackjackR 1 08713 wagers · RTP 73,97%

BaccaratR 8908 wagers · RTP 88,54%

Craps / DiceR 5447 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 5066 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3605 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2935 wagers · RTP 84,13%

American RouletteR 2232 wagers · RTP 43,05%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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