Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #138 of 1,000

P0855

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 81,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11 109

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 1 109

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 312Deviation R 2 421

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 1 109. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 326

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 946 to R 22 111
Finished ahead: 213 / 1,000 (21,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #766 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,18% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.171
Mean bets / session: 4.704
Loss multiplier: 1.0488×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 39,9% / 47,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 20928 wagers · RTP 85,87%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 24126 wagers · RTP 218,04%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 70921 wagers · RTP 46,14%

European RouletteR 2 86712 wagers · RTP 78,83%

BlackjackR 2 1129 wagers · RTP 97,92%

CrashR 2 05012 wagers · RTP 6,40%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 72518 wagers · RTP 21,33%

BaccaratR 1 7089 wagers · RTP 90,09%

Craps / DiceR 1 0327 wagers · RTP 113,18%

American RouletteR 1 0045 wagers · RTP 392,63%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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