Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #937 of 1,000

P0856

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 11,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 313

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 687

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 660Deviation -R 9 027

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 687. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 778

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 869 to R 27 080
Finished ahead: 233 / 1,000 (23,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #827 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 7,19% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.771
Mean bets / session: 4.394
Loss multiplier: 1.2081×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 54,2% / 96,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 4 11610 wagers · RTP 3,79%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 65020 wagers · RTP 6,58%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 39716 wagers · RTP 71,20%

CrashR 1 9318 wagers · RTP 44,80%

BlackjackR 1 8287 wagers · RTP 38,84%

American RouletteR 1 0443 wagers · RTP 251,72%

Three-Reel SlotR 6493 wagers · RTP 22,96%

BaccaratR 4684 wagers · RTP 139,99%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1261 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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