Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #805 of 1,000

P0857

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 24,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 571

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 429

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 913Deviation -R 5 515

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 429. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 208

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 595 to R 26 773
Finished ahead: 191 / 1,000 (19,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #712 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 7,41% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.831
Mean bets / session: 3.664
Loss multiplier: 1.1551×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 66,1% / 88,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 94120 wagers · RTP 15,18%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 90916 wagers · RTP 96,40%

Craps / DiceR 2 70711 wagers · RTP 56,52%

CrashR 1 7537 wagers · RTP 65,46%

American RouletteR 1 5306 wagers · RTP 33,33%

BaccaratR 1 5026 wagers · RTP 132,09%

BlackjackR 7593 wagers · RTP 216,40%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 33,33%

European RouletteR 5102 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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