Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #247 of 1,000

P0858

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 80,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 915

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 85

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 346Deviation R 261

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 85. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 805

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 364 to R 8 519
Finished ahead: 184 / 1,000 (18,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #522 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,31% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.72
Mean bets / session: 3.062
Loss multiplier: 0.922×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 50,3% / 88,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 48016 wagers · RTP 119,60%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 35312 wagers · RTP 62,82%

CrashR 1 1327 wagers · RTP 167,84%

American RouletteR 6655 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 6615 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 4253 wagers · RTP 88,94%

BaccaratR 2682 wagers · RTP 132,09%

Three-Reel SlotR 2282 wagers · RTP 314,04%

Lottery / JackpotR 1712 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1341 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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