Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #920 of 1,000

P0860

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 36,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 696

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 304

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 482Deviation -R 7 822

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 304. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 792

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 962 to R 23 191
Finished ahead: 227 / 1,000 (22,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #858 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,89% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.15
Mean bets / session: 2.933
Loss multiplier: 1.2487×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 42,7% / 46,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 17518 wagers · RTP 74,85%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 56514 wagers · RTP 17,15%

American RouletteR 2 0096 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 8246 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1 7789 wagers · RTP 121,60%

CrashR 1 7666 wagers · RTP 42,54%

BlackjackR 1 7407 wagers · RTP 126,55%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 4427 wagers · RTP 42,06%

Craps / DiceR 1 1773 wagers · RTP 63,30%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 01412 wagers · RTP 40,04%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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