Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #745 of 1,000

P0861

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 31,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 822

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 178

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 476Deviation -R 4 702

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 178. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 632

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 541 to R 25 058
Finished ahead: 263 / 1,000 (26,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #683 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,03% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.692
Mean bets / session: 2.862
Loss multiplier: 1.2161×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 74,0% / 89,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 2 89213 wagers · RTP 102,52%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 58012 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 6835 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 5727 wagers · RTP 67,30%

Craps / DiceR 7723 wagers · RTP 102,33%

American RouletteR 6213 wagers · RTP 25,76%

BlackjackR 4932 wagers · RTP 200,00%

CrashR 4241 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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