Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #912 of 1,000

P0862

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 1,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 854

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 146

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 725Deviation -R 8 421

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 146. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 836

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 680 to R 18 913
Finished ahead: 257 / 1,000 (25,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #745 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,29% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.791
Mean bets / session: 3.256
Loss multiplier: 1.1614×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 42,2% / 64,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 49212 wagers · RTP 96,12%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 27213 wagers · RTP 9,86%

European RouletteR 2 2579 wagers · RTP 26,67%

American RouletteR 2 1359 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1 6005 wagers · RTP 72,27%

BaccaratR 1 1623 wagers · RTP 113,11%

Craps / DiceR 1 0742 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 9363 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 8134 wagers · RTP 42,07%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 33,33%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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