Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #686 of 1,000

P0863

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 47,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 724

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 276

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 808Deviation -R 3 469

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 276. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 122

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 983 to R 24 865
Finished ahead: 210 / 1,000 (21,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #707 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,19% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.387
Mean bets / session: 2.749
Loss multiplier: 1.0534×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 36,3% / 85,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 62821 wagers · RTP 91,90%

BlackjackR 3 57418 wagers · RTP 82,12%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 28811 wagers · RTP 10,93%

Craps / DiceR 1 4887 wagers · RTP 188,58%

BaccaratR 1 2995 wagers · RTP 28,22%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 20,00%

American RouletteR 1 1967 wagers · RTP 128,43%

European RouletteR 1 0925 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 175,00%

CrashR 4582 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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