Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #672 of 1,000

P0864

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 33,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 011

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 989

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 483Deviation -R 3 506

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 989. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 924

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 115 to R 16 590
Finished ahead: 230 / 1,000 (23,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #633 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,73% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.664
Mean bets / session: 3.388
Loss multiplier: 1.1022×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 65,9% / 95,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 28113 wagers · RTP 126,67%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 42712 wagers · RTP 16,81%

Craps / DiceR 1 3694 wagers · RTP 36,96%

European RouletteR 1 2684 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 1066 wagers · RTP 112,66%

Three-Reel SlotR 7714 wagers · RTP 25,29%

BaccaratR 7335 wagers · RTP 156,88%

American RouletteR 6003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 5932 wagers · RTP 100,84%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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