Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #898 of 1,000

P0865

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 26,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 146

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 854

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 394Deviation -R 7 461

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 854. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 382

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 603 to R 25 298
Finished ahead: 221 / 1,000 (22,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #845 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,22% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.17
Mean bets / session: 4.824
Loss multiplier: 1.2498×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 74,5% / 98,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 64838 wagers · RTP 80,52%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 56925 wagers · RTP 10,94%

Three-Reel SlotR 4 02025 wagers · RTP 50,90%

European RouletteR 2 56713 wagers · RTP 208,96%

BaccaratR 2 4099 wagers · RTP 50,48%

BlackjackR 1 93013 wagers · RTP 74,51%

Craps / DiceR 1 84011 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1 0196 wagers · RTP 28,36%

Lottery / JackpotR 4605 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 4503 wagers · RTP 146,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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