Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #832 of 1,000

P0866

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 37,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 027

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 973

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 946Deviation -R 6 027

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 973. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 874

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 215 to R 25 095
Finished ahead: 212 / 1,000 (21,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #786 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,50% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.23
Mean bets / session: 3.388
Loss multiplier: 1.1794×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 72,7% / 54,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6 94033 wagers · RTP 46,47%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 73918 wagers · RTP 107,01%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 17511 wagers · RTP 24,71%

American RouletteR 1 8959 wagers · RTP 75,20%

Craps / DiceR 1 5057 wagers · RTP 85,71%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 44,44%

European RouletteR 8604 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 6173 wagers · RTP 69,69%

BlackjackR 5913 wagers · RTP 159,05%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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