Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #885 of 1,000

P0867

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 41,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 462

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 538

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 173Deviation -R 6 366

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 538. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 782

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 889 to R 24 841
Finished ahead: 240 / 1,000 (24,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #857 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,45% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.273
Mean bets / session: 3.498
Loss multiplier: 0.9148×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 44,3% / 88,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 11 21828 wagers · RTP 144,85%

Craps / DiceR 6 44415 wagers · RTP 27,34%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 96025 wagers · RTP 40,12%

American RouletteR 4 82312 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 3 84810 wagers · RTP 161,74%

BaccaratR 3 4818 wagers · RTP 47,52%

BlackjackR 2 0516 wagers · RTP 137,69%

European RouletteR 1 7365 wagers · RTP 111,81%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 3726 wagers · RTP 32,80%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 10011 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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