Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #822 of 1,000

P0868

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 1,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 200

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 800

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 578Deviation -R 6 222

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 800. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 651

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 210 to R 22 308
Finished ahead: 207 / 1,000 (20,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #683 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,02% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.021
Mean bets / session: 2.811
Loss multiplier: 1.0381×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 45,9% / 81,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 09821 wagers · RTP 52,23%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 23814 wagers · RTP 32,88%

Craps / DiceR 1 0507 wagers · RTP 57,90%

American RouletteR 8607 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7866 wagers · RTP 14,89%

BaccaratR 6614 wagers · RTP 75,04%

Lottery / JackpotR 6238 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 5624 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 4735 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 4394 wagers · RTP 94,65%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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