Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #896 of 1,000

P0870

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 4,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 218

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 782

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 740Deviation -R 8 043

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 782. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 346

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 619 to R 21 766
Finished ahead: 177 / 1,000 (17,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #807 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,72% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.985
Mean bets / session: 4.587
Loss multiplier: 1.1268×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 70,8% / 42,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 58721 wagers · RTP 74,72%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 10118 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 48810 wagers · RTP 70,83%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 46311 wagers · RTP 33,22%

American RouletteR 1 2696 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1 18010 wagers · RTP 21,02%

BaccaratR 1 1009 wagers · RTP 48,73%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 05113 wagers · RTP 19,03%

BlackjackR 7758 wagers · RTP 74,19%

CrashR 6446 wagers · RTP 14,95%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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