Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #155 of 1,000

P0871

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 83,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 642

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 642

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 711Deviation R 1 354

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 642. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 829

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 734 to R 8 956
Finished ahead: 188 / 1,000 (18,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #624 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,95% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.049
Mean bets / session: 4.189
Loss multiplier: 1.0413×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 42,7% / 69,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 76628 wagers · RTP 90,95%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 56121 wagers · RTP 37,88%

European RouletteR 2 53719 wagers · RTP 30,59%

Lottery / JackpotR 99111 wagers · RTP 100,91%

Craps / DiceR 9566 wagers · RTP 122,59%

Three-Reel SlotR 8517 wagers · RTP 462,04%

BlackjackR 7706 wagers · RTP 100,00%

BaccaratR 7357 wagers · RTP 89,42%

American RouletteR 6816 wagers · RTP 233,04%

CrashR 2011 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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