Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #625 of 1,000

P0873

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 45,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 803

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 197

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 553Deviation -R 2 644

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 197. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 830

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 542 to R 10 751
Finished ahead: 232 / 1,000 (23,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #627 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,43% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.681
Mean bets / session: 2.053
Loss multiplier: 1.2388×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 63,7% / 84,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 00210 wagers · RTP 94,67%

BlackjackR 2 8197 wagers · RTP 49,24%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 49910 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 1033 wagers · RTP 195,00%

American RouletteR 1 0273 wagers · RTP 81,01%

CrashR 6112 wagers · RTP 218,49%

European RouletteR 3101 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1211 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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