Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #816 of 1,000

P0874

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 14,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 293

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 707

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 860Deviation -R 5 847

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 707. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 762

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 025 to R 25 619
Finished ahead: 225 / 1,000 (22,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #688 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 7,35% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.029
Mean bets / session: 3.547
Loss multiplier: 1.1221×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 70,0% / 93,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 45425 wagers · RTP 87,19%

BaccaratR 3 00414 wagers · RTP 85,82%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 83713 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 2 64012 wagers · RTP 25,00%

BlackjackR 1 5768 wagers · RTP 97,72%

Craps / DiceR 1 4727 wagers · RTP 80,43%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 3987 wagers · RTP 47,21%

American RouletteR 9445 wagers · RTP 256,36%

CrashR 8544 wagers · RTP 32,20%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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