Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #823 of 1,000

P0875

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 28,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 196

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 804

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 011Deviation -R 5 793

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 804. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 646

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 096 to R 28 147
Finished ahead: 259 / 1,000 (25,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #733 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,01% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.902
Mean bets / session: 3.375
Loss multiplier: 0.9926×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 35,3% / 74,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 00416 wagers · RTP 105,57%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 13317 wagers · RTP 30,24%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 92116 wagers · RTP 89,26%

Craps / DiceR 2 5978 wagers · RTP 125,91%

American RouletteR 2 4638 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 9813 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 6162 wagers · RTP 106,17%

BlackjackR 5562 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 3271 wagers · RTP 195,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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