Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #691 of 1,000

P0877

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 61,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 685

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 315

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 545Deviation -R 2 770

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 315. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 368

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 605 to R 24 723
Finished ahead: 250 / 1,000 (25,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #805 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 6,54% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.339
Mean bets / session: 2.412
Loss multiplier: 1.0693×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 67,8% / 60,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 7 38017 wagers · RTP 62,43%

Craps / DiceR 6 17913 wagers · RTP 62,19%

CrashR 4 45210 wagers · RTP 71,01%

BlackjackR 3 5917 wagers · RTP 105,26%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 25013 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 2 3415 wagers · RTP 24,22%

BaccaratR 2 2765 wagers · RTP 53,08%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7507 wagers · RTP 64,29%

European RouletteR 9872 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 2 500,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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