Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #963 of 1,000

P0878

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 7,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 23

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 977

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 069Deviation -R 8 909

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 977. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 963

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 986 to R 27 601
Finished ahead: 249 / 1,000 (24,9%)
At least one ruin: 1 / 1,000 (0,1%)
Median rank: #896 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,89% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.008
Mean bets / session: 4.83
Loss multiplier: 1.201×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 41,7% / 76,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 7 40439 wagers · RTP 77,50%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 84832 wagers · RTP 24,55%

European RouletteR 2 81712 wagers · RTP 11,40%

American RouletteR 2 57511 wagers · RTP 53,13%

BaccaratR 2 2436 wagers · RTP 119,06%

Craps / DiceR 1 5057 wagers · RTP 58,60%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 3706 wagers · RTP 86,50%

Lottery / JackpotR 5547 wagers · RTP 21,30%

BlackjackR 2783 wagers · RTP 67,27%

CrashR 432 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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