Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #475 of 1,000

P0881

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 62,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 355

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 645

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 643Deviation -R 1 002

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 645. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 378

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 648 to R 10 061
Finished ahead: 202 / 1,000 (20,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #584 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,07% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.292
Mean bets / session: 2.395
Loss multiplier: 1.0554×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 48,4% / 85,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 98020 wagers · RTP 124,18%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 40218 wagers · RTP 3,83%

European RouletteR 1 94815 wagers · RTP 105,08%

American RouletteR 8427 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 7995 wagers · RTP 86,86%

Craps / DiceR 7344 wagers · RTP 225,48%

BlackjackR 6034 wagers · RTP 156,55%

CrashR 5404 wagers · RTP 67,22%

Three-Reel SlotR 3294 wagers · RTP 41,34%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 66,67%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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