Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #873 of 1,000

P0883

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 14,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 801

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 199

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 130Deviation -R 7 069

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 199. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 465

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 728 to R 26 605
Finished ahead: 180 / 1,000 (18,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #813 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,09% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.285
Mean bets / session: 4.459
Loss multiplier: 0.9028×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 56,9% / 52,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 19930 wagers · RTP 113,16%

BlackjackR 6 17529 wagers · RTP 96,49%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 27336 wagers · RTP 33,53%

European RouletteR 3 44517 wagers · RTP 18,90%

CrashR 1 93210 wagers · RTP 111,92%

BaccaratR 1 8066 wagers · RTP 32,12%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 73212 wagers · RTP 53,67%

American RouletteR 8885 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 8174 wagers · RTP 156,67%

Lottery / JackpotR 4765 wagers · RTP 42,02%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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