Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #110 of 1,000

P0884

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 79,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 12 592

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 2 592

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 115Deviation R 4 707

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 2 592. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 464

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 928 to R 27 642
Finished ahead: 245 / 1,000 (24,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #880 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 7,81% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.236
Mean bets / session: 3.944
Loss multiplier: 1.0408×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 66,6% / 60,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 12 47726 wagers · RTP 109,44%

BaccaratR 11 70118 wagers · RTP 81,28%

BlackjackR 6 2479 wagers · RTP 127,77%

European RouletteR 4 6869 wagers · RTP 48,59%

American RouletteR 4 6847 wagers · RTP 276,62%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 70915 wagers · RTP 6,74%

CrashR 3 2797 wagers · RTP 164,53%

Craps / DiceR 2 8004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 80018 wagers · RTP 11,11%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7507 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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