Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #685 of 1,000

P0886

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 60,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 724

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 276

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 199Deviation -R 3 076

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 276. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 195

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 318 to R 28 652
Finished ahead: 244 / 1,000 (24,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #799 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 6,10% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.882
Mean bets / session: 2.757
Loss multiplier: 1.097×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 70,0% / 54,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 6 3869 wagers · RTP 113,53%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 39513 wagers · RTP 156,69%

American RouletteR 4 6547 wagers · RTP 50,60%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 00016 wagers · RTP 31,25%

European RouletteR 3 8905 wagers · RTP 58,77%

CrashR 3 3117 wagers · RTP 60,82%

Craps / DiceR 1 9603 wagers · RTP 84,90%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 75,00%

BlackjackR 3981 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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