Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #549 of 1,000

P0889

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 73,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 697

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 303

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 898Deviation -R 405

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 303. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 892

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 416 to R 25 872
Finished ahead: 220 / 1,000 (22,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #825 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,85% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.171
Mean bets / session: 4.854
Loss multiplier: 1.1695×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 39,0% / 68,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 9 92428 wagers · RTP 88,62%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7 20532 wagers · RTP 37,92%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7 05722 wagers · RTP 96,75%

American RouletteR 4 30913 wagers · RTP 92,04%

Craps / DiceR 3 67112 wagers · RTP 80,41%

European RouletteR 2 8679 wagers · RTP 18,21%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 9878 wagers · RTP 427,78%

BlackjackR 1 7836 wagers · RTP 126,98%

BaccaratR 1 4505 wagers · RTP 123,59%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 00010 wagers · RTP 60,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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