Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #902 of 1,000

P0890

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 7,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 074

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 926

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 785Deviation -R 8 141

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 926. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 353

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 084 to R 24 310
Finished ahead: 236 / 1,000 (23,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #767 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 6,17% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.071
Mean bets / session: 2.214
Loss multiplier: 1.1463×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,6% / 57,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 34414 wagers · RTP 79,97%

BaccaratR 3 7408 wagers · RTP 93,38%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 9719 wagers · RTP 73,34%

BlackjackR 1 9055 wagers · RTP 51,23%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 8739 wagers · RTP 20,34%

European RouletteR 1 7535 wagers · RTP 15,40%

American RouletteR 1 5712 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1 5544 wagers · RTP 52,64%

Craps / DiceR 5722 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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