Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #848 of 1,000

P0894

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 26,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 566

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 434

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 977Deviation -R 6 456

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 434. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 853

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 793 to R 27 270
Finished ahead: 244 / 1,000 (24,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #786 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,13% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.09
Mean bets / session: 4.457
Loss multiplier: 1.1428×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 36,6% / 74,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 59627 wagers · RTP 45,12%

BaccaratR 3 76919 wagers · RTP 106,87%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 70113 wagers · RTP 40,30%

CrashR 2 42115 wagers · RTP 88,01%

European RouletteR 2 08411 wagers · RTP 72,84%

Craps / DiceR 2 0058 wagers · RTP 49,08%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 5658 wagers · RTP 44,41%

BlackjackR 1 0365 wagers · RTP 97,49%

Lottery / JackpotR 8339 wagers · RTP 72,03%

American RouletteR 5135 wagers · RTP 99,42%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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