Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #763 of 1,000

P0895

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 56,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 411

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 589

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 457Deviation -R 4 132

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 589. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 261

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 180 to R 22 752
Finished ahead: 214 / 1,000 (21,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #805 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,81% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.112
Mean bets / session: 4.207
Loss multiplier: 0.9719×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 62,1% / 46,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 8 80228 wagers · RTP 94,57%

Three-Reel SlotR 5 32223 wagers · RTP 61,80%

BlackjackR 4 58811 wagers · RTP 104,97%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 33215 wagers · RTP 21,61%

American RouletteR 3 2897 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 3 1767 wagers · RTP 115,37%

BaccaratR 2 9877 wagers · RTP 89,81%

CrashR 2 4505 wagers · RTP 229,59%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 28,57%

European RouletteR 2631 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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