Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #617 of 1,000

P0896

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 68,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 922

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 078

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 050Deviation -R 2 028

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 078. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 605

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 024 to R 24 373
Finished ahead: 185 / 1,000 (18,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #735 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,42% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.86
Mean bets / session: 3.723
Loss multiplier: 0.9125×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 72,4% / 92,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 56333 wagers · RTP 21,64%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 23122 wagers · RTP 90,38%

American RouletteR 1 2406 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 1507 wagers · RTP 75,30%

CrashR 1 0685 wagers · RTP 38,86%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 00010 wagers · RTP 40,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 8714 wagers · RTP 26,52%

BlackjackR 8203 wagers · RTP 57,32%

European RouletteR 6675 wagers · RTP 810,94%

Craps / DiceR 4912 wagers · RTP 264,77%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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