Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #815 of 1,000

P0897

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 7,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 342

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 658

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 675Deviation -R 5 983

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 658. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 960

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 127 to R 26 632
Finished ahead: 221 / 1,000 (22,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #637 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,74% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.631
Mean bets / session: 3.564
Loss multiplier: 1.2286×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 74,6% / 89,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 61214 wagers · RTP 63,88%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 90016 wagers · RTP 70,51%

Craps / DiceR 2 4188 wagers · RTP 54,92%

BaccaratR 2 2958 wagers · RTP 85,27%

European RouletteR 9963 wagers · RTP 66,67%

BlackjackR 8833 wagers · RTP 24,80%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 83,33%

American RouletteR 6642 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 3291 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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