Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #850 of 1,000

P0898

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 21,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 511

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 489

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 883Deviation -R 6 606

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 489. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 383

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 051 to R 27 256
Finished ahead: 248 / 1,000 (24,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #721 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,20% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.954
Mean bets / session: 2.159
Loss multiplier: 1.2051×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 63,2% / 72,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 41813 wagers · RTP 77,34%

BlackjackR 3 1556 wagers · RTP 81,43%

American RouletteR 2 4126 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 2 3714 wagers · RTP 170,90%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 9358 wagers · RTP 12,92%

BaccaratR 1 7603 wagers · RTP 74,94%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 2185 wagers · RTP 69,21%

European RouletteR 1 0572 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 7862 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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