Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #771 of 1,000

P0899

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 42,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 318

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 682

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 960Deviation -R 4 722

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 682. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 836

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 790 to R 25 659
Finished ahead: 236 / 1,000 (23,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #746 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,55% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.025
Mean bets / session: 3.014
Loss multiplier: 1.199×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 65,8% / 94,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 65313 wagers · RTP 104,39%

CrashR 3 4139 wagers · RTP 53,29%

BaccaratR 3 26210 wagers · RTP 146,81%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 14315 wagers · RTP 7,25%

European RouletteR 2 1168 wagers · RTP 54,06%

Craps / DiceR 2 0086 wagers · RTP 53,59%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 60,00%

BlackjackR 9684 wagers · RTP 36,16%

American RouletteR 9624 wagers · RTP 157,38%

Lottery / JackpotR 7908 wagers · RTP 50,63%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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